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61.
冰湖作为区域气候变化的灵敏指示器和主要冰川灾害的启动器,认识其空间分布及变化特征对探讨冰湖对气候变化的响应规律及冰湖溃决危险性评估具有重要意义.基于1968-1980年地形图数据和1994-2016年Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像资料,综合利用RS、GIS技术和数理统计方法分析帕隆藏布流域面积≥ 0.01 km2冰湖时空分布及其动态变化,并对潜在危险性冰湖进行判别和评估.结果表明:2016年帕隆藏布流域共有冰湖351个,面积50.48 km2,且面积和数量分别以面积>1 km2和面积<0.1 km2的冰湖为主,这些冰湖主要分布于海拔2800~5400 m之间.近50年来帕隆藏布流域冰湖总体呈数量增多、面积增加态势;海拔<3000 m的冰湖相对稳定,而海拔>4500 m的冰湖数量和面积增加则相对迅速.近50年间帕隆藏布流域冰川面积减少591.34 km2,气候变暖导致的冰川末端退缩和冰川融水增加为冰湖形成和扩张提供了发育空间和物质来源.切毛措、光谢错等9个冰湖为潜在危险性冰湖,预计未来一段时间内帕隆藏布流域冰湖溃决可能处于活跃阶段,其形成和暴发也将更加频繁. 相似文献
62.
为了确定百花水库营养盐变化特征,选取百花水库5个监测点2014年1月-2018年7月共28个月份的水质实测数据,分析溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总磷和总氮的年际变化特征.采用基于熵权法赋权的贝叶斯理论对5个监测点的水质综合状况进行评价,并结合水库的实际状况,从生态修复、工业污染源、沉积物中营养盐、水库季节性热分层及农业与生活污染源5个方面对其水质变化的影响因素进行分析.结果表明:2014-2018年水体环境波动较大;除总氮外,各污染指标浓度均有不同程度的下降;综合水质后验概率表明百花水库水质有逐渐变差的趋势;总氮和总磷治理应成为百花水库污染治理的主要方面;生态修复工程的开展和工业污染源的削减是百花水库水质转好的主要影响因素,农业与生活污染源的增加是百花水库水质转差的主要影响因素. 相似文献
63.
在高强度地震环境下,建筑施工场点易发生危险,传统方法运用AHP算法对建筑施工场点的危险性进行分析,但未考虑抗震约束,存在分析效果差的弊端。因此,提出一种高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析方法。首先采用TOPSIS方法得到地震风险评估指标,构建风险评估指标的物元分析模型,基于AHP-熵权法的组合赋权获取地震风险评估指标的综合权重。然后通过贝叶斯网络来推导高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性参数,运用地震等级的划分标准和推算方法,依据建筑施工场点危险性评估准则和接受原则APLARP,利用物元分析模型中不同危险节点的致因关系和综合权重构建施工场点风险评估模型,完成对高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性的建模分析。实验结果表明,所设计模型可准确分析高强度地震下建筑施工场点的危险性,能够确保整体施工的安全性,具有重要的应用价值。 相似文献
64.
《China Geology》2020,3(2):247-261
The Lower Cretaceous Yingcheng Formation in the southern Songliao Basin is the typical tight oil sandstone in China. In order to better predict the petrophysical properties of the tight sandstone reservoirs in the Lower Cretaceous Yingcheng Formation, Songliao Basin, Northeast China, the diagenesis and porosity evolution was investigated using a suite of petrographic and geochemical techniques including thin section analysis, scanning electron microscopy, mercury intrusion and fluid inclusion analysis, on a set of selected tight sandstone samples. Combined with the histories of burial evolution, organic matter thermal evolution and hydrocarbon charge, the matching relationship between reservoir porosity evolution and hydrocarbon accumulation history is analyzed. The result showed that the tight sandstone reservoirs characterized of being controlled by deposition, predominated by compaction, improved by dissolution and enhanced by cementation. The hydrocarbon accumulation period was investigated using a suite of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion history, microfluorescence determination and temperature measurement technology. According to the homogenization temperature of the inclusions and the history of burial evolution, Yingcheng Formation has mainly two phases hydrocarbon accumulation. The first phase of oil and gas is charged before the reservoir is tightened, the oil and gas generated by Shahezi source rocks enter the sand body of Yingcheng Formation, influenced by the carrying capability of sand conducting layer, oil and gas is mainly conducted by the better properties and higher connectivity sand body and enriched in the east, which belongs to the type of densification after hydrocarbon accumulation. The second phase of oil and gas charge after densification, which belongs to the type of densification before the hydrocarbon accumulation. 相似文献
65.
66.
Miles P. Wilson Fred Worrall Sarah A. Clancy Chris J. Ottley Alwyn Hart Richard J. Davies 《水文研究》2020,34(15):3271-3294
An environmental concern with hydraulic fracturing for shale gas is the risk of groundwater and surface water contamination. Assessing this risk partly involves the identification and understanding of groundwater–surface water interactions because potentially contaminating fluids could move from one water body to the other along hydraulic pathways. In this study, we use water quality data from a prospective shale gas basin to determine: if surface water sampling could identify groundwater compartmentalisation by low-permeability faults; and if surface waters interact with groundwater in underlying bedrock formations, thereby indicating hydraulic pathways. Variance analysis showed that bedrock geology was a significant factor influencing surface water quality, indicating regional-scale groundwater–surface water interactions despite the presence of an overlying region-wide layer of superficial deposits averaging 30–40 m thickness. We propose that surface waters interact with a weathered bedrock layer through the complex distribution of glaciofluvial sands and gravels. Principal component analysis showed that surface water compositions were constrained within groundwater end-member compositions. Surface water quality data showed no relationship with groundwater compartmentalisation known to be caused by a major basin fault. Therefore, there was no chemical evidence to suggest that deeper groundwater in this particular area of the prospective basin was reaching the surface in response to compartmentalisation. Consequently, in this case compartmentalisation does not appear to increase the risk of fracking-related contaminants reaching surface waters, although this may differ under different hydrogeological scenarios. 相似文献
67.
Crowd-based hydrological observations can supplement existing monitoring networks and allow data collection in regions where otherwise no data would be available. In the citizen science project CrowdWater, repeated water level observations using a virtual staff gauge approach result in time series of water level classes (WL-classes). To investigate the quality of these observations, we compared the WL-class data with “real” (i.e., measured) water levels from the same stream at a nearby gauging station. We did this for nine locations where citizen scientists reported multiple observations using a smartphone app and at 12 locations where signposts were set up to ask citizens to record observations on a paper form that could be left in a letterbox. The results indicate that the quality of the data collected with the app was better than for the forms. A possible explanation is that for each app location, a single person submitted the vast majority of the observations, whereas at the locations of the forms almost every observation was made by a different person. On average, there were more contributions between May and September than during the other months. Observations were submitted for a range of flow conditions, with a higher fraction of high flow observations for the locations were data were collected with the app. Overall, the results are encouraging for citizen science approaches in hydrology and demonstrate that the smartphone application and the virtual staff gauge are a promising approach for crowd-based water level class observations. 相似文献
68.
WEN Boyu XU Chong HE Xiangli MA Siyuan SHAO Xiaoyi LI Kai ZHANG Zhongjian LI Zhengfang 《中国地震研究》2020,34(1):64-80
An MW6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido, Japan on September 6th, 2018. Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution (3 m) planet satellite, we manually interpret 9 293 coseismic landslides and select 7 influencing factors of seismic landslide, such as elevation, slope, slope direction, road distance, flow distance, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and lithology. Then, 9 293 landslide points are randomly divided into training samples and validation samples with a proportion of 7:3. In detail, the training sample has 6 505 landslide points and the validation sample has 2 788 landslide points. The hazard risk assessment of seismic landslide is conducted by using the information value method and the study area is further divided into five risk grades, including very low risk area, low risk area, moderate risk area high risk area and very high risk area. The results show that there are 7 576 landslides in high risk area and very high risk area, accounting for 81.52% of the total landslide number, and the landslide area is 22.93 km2, accounting for 74.35% of the total area. The hazard zoning is in high accordance with the actual situation. The evaluation results are tested by using the curve of cumulative percentage of hazardous area and cumulative percentage of landslides number. The results show that the success rate of the information value method is 78.50% and the prediction rate is 78.43%. The evaluation results are satisfactory, indicating that the hazard risk assessment results based on information value method may provide scientific reference for landslide hazard risk assessment as well as the disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area. 相似文献
69.
本研究以围绕着白龙江流域的甘肃省南部的宕昌县、舟曲县和武都区部分地区为研究区,根据全国滑坡编目中得到的272个历史滑坡数据以及选取的高程、坡度、坡向、平面曲率、剖面曲率、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、降雨、岩性、距道路距离和距河流距离10种影响因子,利用三种具有代表性的定量方法:信息量模型、以及基于频率比模型的逻辑回归模型和人工神经网络模型对研究区内滑坡灾害危险性进行评价。三种评价结果均显示研究区内滑坡灾害的极高和高危险区主要沿白龙江河谷地区呈带状分布。从危险性分区图可看出,人工神经网络模型得到的分区图较为合理,既表现出沿河谷地区集中分布的趋势,也呈现出对滑坡历史数据较为独立的特征,这一研究结果与前人研究结果一致。根据受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)对三种模型的精度进行检验,检验得到的AUC值分别为0.818、0.829和0.837,说明三种评价结果均具有较高的可靠性,基于频率比模型的人工神经网络模型相比其他两个模型具有更好的评价精度,能更好地进行滑坡危险性的预测和评价,其中高程、降雨、岩性以及距道路距离对评价结果影响更大,这四种影响因子重要性值占比为52.1%。为该地区的城市扩建与灾害预防预测提供了参考。 相似文献
70.